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The End Is (Finally) In Sight For La Niña

We finally have a timeframe for when the above average rainfall will end along the east coast and northern parts of Australia.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has predicted we will see an end to La Niña by early autumn.

The climate models suggest we will return to ‘neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO) around March.

According to BOM, we are likely nearing the peak of La Niña.

“Five of the seven international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate La Niña thresholds are likely to be met during February,” its latest update said.

“By April, only two models continue to exceed the threshold, with the other five returning to neutral.”

“Autumn is the typical time of the year in which ENSO events decay and return to neutral,” the BOM said in its update.

La Niña causes the northern and eastern parts of Australia to have above average rainfall during the summer months.

Sea surface temperatures remain cooler than usual in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which is supported by cooler than usual sub-surface waters.

Warmer than usual waters persist in the north of Australia.

“However, these cooler sub-surface waters are starting to warm,” BOM said.

Rainfall in the Top End, easter and northern parts of NSW, eastern Victoria and in parts of the tropics in Queensland have all seen above average rainfall.